How to Use High School Naviance Data to Predict College Acceptance

The Local Context Secret

When you research a college, you usually look up their national statistics: "The University of Michigan has a 17% acceptance rate and an average GPA of 3.9."

While interesting, this national data is almost entirely useless for predicting your specific chances.

Colleges do not evaluate you against the entire country. They evaluate you in the context of your specific high school. They look at the rigor of your school, the AP classes offered, and the historical performance of students from your zip code.

To find your true odds, you must ignore national averages and look at your high school's Naviance Scattergrams.

What is a Scattergram?

Naviance (or similar platforms like Scoir) is a software used by most US high schools. It tracks every senior who applies to college over a 10-year period.

When you click on a college in Naviance, it generates a graph (a scattergram).

The Y-Axis is the GPA.

The X-Axis is the SAT/ACT score.

Green Checkmarks: Students from your high school who were accepted.

Red X's: Students from your high school who were rejected.

How to Read the Data

The scattergram reveals the hidden biases of college admissions offices.

You might look at the University of Michigan graph for your high school and notice a hard, vertical red line at a 3.8 GPA. You see dozens of students with a 3.7 GPA and perfect 1600 SAT scores (Red X's) being rejected. Meanwhile, students with a 3.9 GPA and 1350 SAT scores (Green Checkmarks) are being accepted.

This local data tells you a massive secret: For your specific high school, the University of Michigan values GPA over standardized testing.

If you have a 3.7 and a 1550, national calculators will tell you that Michigan is a "Target" school. But your local scattergram tells you the brutal truth: For your high school, it is a "Reach." Always trust the local scattergram over the national average.